Luxury markets regained their footing in May, as entry-level prices in the 82 luxury markets combined reached $1.24 million, up 2.2 percent year-over-year on average. Luxury sales in May remained steady after a market stabilization the prior month. There were 11,524 million dollar homes sold in the 82 luxury markets, growing just 0.8 percent year-over-year, adding another month of stability after March鈥檚 historic 7.9 percent decline.
More Local Markets Find Relief as Luxury Sales Maintain Stability
The fastest growing markets for million dollar sales in May were Monroe, Fla.; Travis, Texas; Multnomah, Ore.; Cape May, N.J.; and Alexandria, Va., which all saw at least 75 percent growth in million dollar sales. These fast growing smaller markets have led the pack, as the volume of luxury sales on a per-market basis increased in May, with 46 of the 82 markets seeing growth in million dollar sales, compared to the 42 markets the prior month.
Luxury Price Growth Edging Toward 2016 Lows
The entry level luxury price in the 82 markets combined reached $1.24 million, up 2.2 percent over last May on average, which is 3.3 percent slower than the pace of growth at this time last year, and 1.5 percent slower than last month. On a local level, 55 of the 82 luxury markets are growing at a slower rate than last year. The top five fastest growing markets for luxury prices this month include Summit, Colo.; Pinellas, Fla.; Cape May, N.J.; Snohomish, Wash.; and Monroe, Fla., all seeing growth of 9 to 18 percent year-over-year. Only four markets were experiencing double-digit price growth this month, compared to 17 a year ago. National luxury price growth stalled in mid-2016 after months of gradual slowing. If trends continue their current pace, the luxury market may experience a similar stall as the end of the year approaches.
California Central Coast Markets Rise as the Bay Area Loses Traction
California Central Coast luxury markets continued their ascent, outpacing their respective mid-market price growth and outperforming Bay Area markets. Santa Barbara, Calif. saw price declines at the start of 2019, but grew by 8.9 percent, reaching an entry-level price point of $2.6 million. The mid-market price growth in Santa Barbara is flat year-over-year. Furthermore, million dollar sales in Santa Barbara are up 6.5 percent year-over-year.
In San Luis Obispo, the luxury entry price point reached $1.3 million. Prices had been decelerating since November and are nearing a decline, but perked back up in March and maintained 7.5 percent growth in May. Meanwhile, the median price growth was 2.7 percent, and this pace continues to decelerate. Million dollar sales in San Luis Obispo are steady compared to last month, although drastically down 24.5 percent compared to a booming May last year.
Monterey, Calif. prices reached $2 million after seeing a healthy 3.7 percent growth in May. Mid-market price growth in Monterey continued to decelerate and now sits at 1.1 percent yearly growth. Million dollar sales in Monterey are up 10 percent.
Meanwhile, the greater San Francisco Bay Area has been steadily losing traction since January. Of all the California markets that Big gaming tracks, luxury prices San Francisco; Sonoma, Calif; Santa Clara, Calif.; Santa Cruz, Calif.; Marin, Calif.; and San Mateo, Calif. counties have slowed the most since January. With some reaching the point of price declines.
Nashville Luxury Cools as Outskirts Thrive
Nashville luxury (Davidson and Williamson Counties) peaked last year, as luxury prices grew by 15 percent. Since the start of 2019, price growth in the greater Nashville area started decelerating. However, the region has been split in this regard. In urban Nashville — Davidson County — price growth has continued decelerating and now sits at $818,000, growing 2.7 percent with a trajectory toward flat growth and potentially declining in the next few months.聽
On the other hand, the outskirts of Nashville — Williamson County — and in particular areas like Franklin, have rebounded and maintained strong single-digit growth in May, up 8.3 percent year-over-year, reaching $1.1 million. In addition to price growth, Williamson is also outpacing Davidson in million dollar sales. Williamson is up 46.2 percent, while Davidson is up 25.5 percent.
Top 20 Fastest Growing Luxury Markets
(Based on sale price growth YoY)
| County | Luxury (Top 5%) Sale Price | Luxury Sale Price Y/Y | Million Dollar Sale Count Y/Y |
| Summit, Colo. | $1,807,000 | 18.0% | 52.9% |
| Pinellas, Fla. | $745,000 | 14.9% | -24.0% |
| Cape May, N.J. | $1,594,000 | 14.6% | 80.8% |
| Snohomish, Wash. | $887,000 | 9.6% | -6.1% |
| Monroe, Fla. | $1,862,000 | 9.3% | 119.0% |
| Charleston, S.C. | $1,217,000 | 9.2% | 30.2% |
| Santa Barbara, Calif. | $2,598,000 | 8.9% | 6.5% |
| Williamson, Tenn. | $1,131,000 | 8.3% | 46.2% |
| San Luis Obispo, Calif. | $1,304,000 | 7.5% | -24.5% |
| Maricopa, Ariz. | $730,000 | 7.0% | 5.0% |
| Norfolk, Mass. | $1,545,000 | 6.4% | 15.0% |
| Denver, Colo. | $1,088,000 | 6.0% | 50.0% |
| Beaufort, S.C. | $964,000 | 5.9% | -19.2% |
| Montgomery, Md. | $1,294,000 | 5.8% | -0.8% |
| Orange, Calif. | $1,991,000 | 5.6% | -3.0% |
| Harris, Texas | $633,000 | 5.6% | 54.1% |
| Sacramento, Calif. | $715,000 | 5.5% | 36.7% |
| Douglas, Colo. | $976,000 | 5.5% | 35.3% |
| Middlesex, Mass. | $1,437,000 | 5.4% | 24.6% |
| Wake, N.C. | $674,000 | 4.9% | 9.1% |
Top 20 Fastest Growing Luxury Markets
(Based on growth of million dollar sales YoY)
| County | Luxury (Top 5%) Sale Price | Luxury Sale Price Y/Y | Million Dollar Sale Count Y/Y |
| Monroe, Fla. | $1,862,000 | 9.3% | 119.0% |
| Travis, Texas. | $927,000 | 3.2% | 89.8% |
| Multnomah, Ore. | $887,000 | 4.0% | 83.9% |
| Cape May, N.J. | $1,594,000 | 14.6% | 80.8% |
| Alexandria city, Va. | $1,193,000 | 1.8% | 75.0% |
| Plymouth, Mass. | $888,000 | 2.6% | 73.7% |
| Harris, Texas | $633,000 | 5.6% | 54.1% |
| Summit, Colo. | $1,807,000 | 18.0% | 52.9% |
| Denver, Colo. | $1,088,000 | 6.0% | 50.0% |
| Williamson, Tenn. | $1,131,000 | 8.3% | 46.2% |
| Duval, Fla. | $525,000 | -1.2% | 44.4% |
| Loudoun, Va. | $930,000 | 4.3% | 40.0% |
| Sacramento, Calif. | $715,000 | 5.5% | 36.7% |
| Douglas, Colo. | $976,000 | 5.5% | 35.3% |
| Hudson, N.J. | $1,370,000 | 3.5% | 34.2% |
| Mecklenburg, N.C. | $728,000 | 1.5% | 32.8% |
| Charleston, S.C. | $1,217,000 | 9.2% | 30.2% |
| Palm Beach, Fla. | $1,016,000 | 3.2% | 27.3% |
| Arapahoe, Colo. | $758,000 | 4.5% | 26.3% |
| Davidson, Tenn. | $818,000 | 2.7% | 25.5% |
Top 20 Most Expensive Luxury Markets
(Based on sale price)
| County | Luxury (Top 5%) Sale Price | Luxury Sale Price Y/Y | Million Dollar Sale Count Y/Y |
| San Mateo, Calif. | $3,588,000 | 2.5% | -6.1% |
| Marin, Calif. | $3,166,000 | -2.6% | 3.8% |
| San Francisco, Calif. | $3,106,000 | -5.3% | 1.9% |
| Santa Clara, Calif. | $2,830,000 | 0.8% | -14.6% |
| Santa Barbara, Calif. | $2,598,000 | 8.9% | 6.5% |
| Eagle, Colo. | $2,512,000 | 3.3% | 9.1% |
| Los Angeles, Calif. | $2,115,000 | 2.0% | -5.3% |
| Monterey, Calif. | $2,015,000 | 3.7% | 10.0% |
| Orange, Calif. | $1,991,000 | 5.6% | -3.0% |
| Monroe, Fla. | $1,862,000 | 9.3% | 119.0% |
| Summit, Colo. | $1,807,000 | 18.0% | 52.9% |
| Westchester, N.Y. | $1,671,000 | -8.1% | -17.0% |
| Alameda, Calif. | $1,656,000 | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| Santa Cruz, Calif. | $1,643,000 | 1.5% | -9.8% |
| Contra Costa, Calif. | $1,637,000 | 3.7% | 14.9% |
| Walton, Fla. | $1,618,000 | 2.6% | -4.0% |
| Cape May, N.J. | $1,594,000 | 14.6% | 80.8% |
| Collier, Fla. | $1,588,000 | -5.6% | 16.0% |
| King, Wash. | $1,571,000 | 3.2% | -3.0% |
| Norfolk, Mass. | $1,545,000 | 6.4% | 15.0% |
Methodology
The Big gaming庐 Luxury Home Index analyzes 82 luxury counties, looking at yearly movement in the entry-level luxury price boundary, defined as the top 5 percent of all residential home sales in a given market for the past 12 months. Price figures are averages for the period. The following markets were excluded from rankings this month as we review their data: Washoe, Nev.; Clark, Nev.; Delaware, Pa.; Fairfield, Conn.; Maui, Hawaii; St. Louis, Mo.; Dallas, Texas; New York, N.Y.; Kings, N.Y.; Barnstable, Mass.; Suffolk, Mass.; Charlseton, S.C.; and Lee, Fla. Home Sales metrics are based on sales data up through May 2019.
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