Homebuyers and sellers have been separated by force this spring. Prior to the COVID-19 onset in the U.S., this spring was shaping up to be one of the busiest homebuying seasons ever recorded. While the virus effects keep unraveling, new data on housing markets is emerging that points to a strong link between the health impact and the initial housing slowdown. Analyzing Big gaming’s metro level inventory trends for the week ending April 11 shows COVID-19 per capita has had a major role in driving the timing and extent of the pause to housing activity. In the top 100 largest markets in the country,聽 key housing performance metrics suggest markets with a higher concentration of COVID-19 cases are seeing significantly bigger declines in new listings (as sellers pull back) and bigger increases in time on market (as more homes stay longer on market).
The Link between COVID-19 per Capita and Seller Sentiment
Th health, economic and societal extent of the virus have had a direct impact on buyers and sellers alike. The physical restrictions have forced sellers to react first. In the top 10 metros with the highest Covid cases per capita, the volume of newly listed properties is declining nearly two times (1.9X) faster on average compared to the top 10 metros with the lowest Covid cases per capita, down 69 and 37% year-over-year respectively. Notably, seven of the 10 metros most impacted by Covid are located in the Northeast (including New York, Boston and Detroit), with two in the Midwest and only one in the South (New Orleans). While population density plays a factor, the sharp and pronounced impact to Northeastern markets also comes from the earlier onset of the virus and its rapid to the local health infrastructures. The physical restrictions have brought a swift pause to home showings and selling activity. The regional pattern reverses with the areas least affected by the virus, with the South and the West over-represented in the top 10 metros with the lowest Covid cases per capita.
COVID-19 is Also Extending Time on Market
The housing repercussions of Covid are not only limited to sellers postponing or re-evaluating their plans to list a home. Some sellers have resolved to keep their properties on the market, taking the process virtually or simply waiting for buyers to flock back again once the market reopens. Potential homebuyers share the frustration. Physical restrictions have also made it harder to visit a home, make an offer, and close the deal. The result has been more properties spending more time than usual on the market. In the top 10 metros with the 丑颈驳丑别蝉迟听covid cases per capita, the median age of inventory (days on market) is increasing nearly ten times (8.3X) faster on average compared to the top 10 metros with the 濒辞飞别蝉迟听covid cases per capita, up 15.0% and 1.8% year-over-year respectively.
Top 10 Metros with Highest Covid Cases聽 per Capita
| Metro | Covid Cases per Capita (100K) | New Listings Y/Y | Median Days on Market Y/Y | Region |
| New Orleans, LA | 听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听 1,127 | -51.0% | 4.8% | South |
| New York, NY | 听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听 861 | -74.6% | -2.0% | Northeast |
| Bridgeport, CT | 听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听 780 | -71.7% | 4.8% | Northeast |
| Boston, MA | 听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听 597 | -64.5% | 26.5% | Northeast |
| Detroit, MI | 听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听 575 | -76.9% | 52.6% | Midwest |
| New Haven, CT | 听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听 567 | -63.0% | 3.9% | Northeast |
| Allentown, PA | 听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听 517 | -80.4% | -1.7% | Northeast |
| Scranton, PA | 听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听 432 | -80.6% | 11.8% | Northeast |
| Springfield, MA | 听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听 419 | -59.8% | 23.9% | Northeast |
| Philadelphia, PA | 听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听 380 | -70.3% | 22.4% | Midwest |
Top 10 Metros with Lowest Covid Cases聽 per Capita
| Metro | Covid Cases per Capita (100K) | New Listings Y/Y | Median Days on Market Y/Y | Region |
| McAllen,TX | 听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听 29 | -63.4% | 1.3% | South |
| Fresno,CA | 听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听 31 | -38.8% | 10.5% | West |
| Chattanooga,TN | 听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听 34 | -32.4% | -7.1% | South |
| Greensboro,NC | 听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听 34 | -32.5% | -10.5% | South |
| Knoxville,TN | 听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听 35 | -31.4% | -5.0% | South |
| Palm Bay,FL | 听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听 36 | -25.6% | -11.3% | South |
| Urban Honolulu,HI | 听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听 39 | -43.0% | 15.3% | West |
| Winston,NC | 听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听 39 | -44.3% | -3.8% | South |
| Wichita,KS | 听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听 40 | -36.7% | 28.9% | Midwest |
| Minneapolis,MN | 听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听听 42 | -26.3% | 0.0% | Midwest |
Methodology: Realtor.com analyzed inventory data for the country’s 100 largest metros for the week ending April 11, overlaying with COVID-19 cases per capita data rolled up to the metro level from county level data available on .
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