January 22, 2021
- To keep up with the rapid changes COVID-19 is causing in the economy and housing market, the Big gaming庐 economics team provides a and on the relevant real estate and economic information you need to know to navigate the housing market in these challenging times.
- This week, Chief Economist Danielle Hale discusses this week鈥檚 and initial , both of which improved this week.听
- Danielle also covers a bevy of year-end housing reports that highlighted the market鈥檚 strong finish in 2020 including the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, the , and released by the U.S. Census Bureau. While most indicators highlight strong momentum, the outlook component of the builders鈥� housing market index shows concerns about rising materials costs and buildable land.
- Builders assessment of buyer traffic took a small step back in January. Although the momentum is less than we saw in December, the Big gaming庐听 Housing Market Recovery Index analysis by Javier Vivas shows that buyer traffic growth picked up in the last week. Our latest Weekly Housing Trends View shows rising prices and faster sales, consistent with the number of buyers outpacing sellers.
- Our 2021 housing & economic forecast expects continued growth in construction to eventually provide some relief for home buyers, but the magnitude of the shortage will take time to unwind.听
- Finally, research by Sabrina Speianu examines the ski towns that are seeing the most growth in interest from Snowbird home shoppers.
- For more real-time updates, follow the economics team on twitter: .
- Have an economic question you want the team to answer? Leave a note in the comments below!
VIDEO TRANSCRIPT:
- I鈥檓 Danielle Hale, Chief Economist for Big gaming庐 and here鈥檚 what you need to know this week.听
- Long-term bond rates have steadied in the last week, and mortgage rates followed suit, ticking down slightly. On the whole, mortgage rates are expected to gradually rise this year as the economy improves, but we鈥檒l still see weeks that are the exception to that broader trend.
- Speaking of improvement, we saw some in this week鈥檚 jobless claims data and additionally, last week鈥檚 large jump was revised somewhat lower. Despite these improvements, claims remain higher than any other week since August–a reminder that more recovery is needed.
- We鈥檙e three weeks into 2021, and a new presidential administration is in office, but we鈥檙e still getting data from the end of 2020. In general, the housing market finished 2020 on a strong note, but there are some signs of slowing momentum ahead.听
- Homebuilder confidence, new construction and existing home sales were all released this week and show continued year over year growth, but the housing market index in particular dropped in December [and January] as builders were concerned about the outlook for building with rising materials costs and scarce land.
- Builders were not as concerned with demand, and in fact our Housing Market Recovery Index shows that buyer interest picked up this week and continues to be the most recovered indicator.听
- Home price growth and time on market show the effects of plenty of buyers and not enough sellers: prices are rising and homes are selling faster.听
- The supply recovery continues to lag with overall inventories and new listings both declining this week.
- Our forecast expects continued strength in single-family construction that will eventually provide relief for home buyers.
- Finally, ski towns are seeing a boom this year as many look for nearby vacation spots that offer relatively safe and healthy outdoor activities year round.
- For some winter fun, my team took a look at the top ski towns favored by 鈥榮nowbirds鈥� from the Northeast and Midwest and found that they鈥檙e generally close to home this year.
- You鈥檒l find details from these reports and our full housing & economic forecast along with data for download at Big gaming/research.听 AND you can follow us on for real time insights.
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